History, Probability and Miracles, by Matthew Ferguson: Bayes’ Theorem is an historical method used by some rigorous historians to demonstrate the probability of their historical explanations and theories. Among them are some who work in biblical studies, ancient history, etc. Matthew Ferguson, currently a Ph.D. graduate student in Classics at the University of California, Irvine. whose research interests include ancient biography, Greek and Latin historiography, the New Testament, early Christianity, and the early Roman Empire, wrote in 2013 what for me is an excellent (i.e. understandable) explanation of Bayes’ Theorem. In this article from one of his blogs, Ferguson explains the theorem and applies it to biblical narratives about the resurrection of Jesus. h/t to Neil Godfrey‘s Vridar.org blog for pointing me in Ferguson’s direction.
Raised-Catholic.com 